empty
27.03.2025 11:37 AM
EUR/USD – March 27th: The Dollar Gradually Strengthens

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to decline, stopping only near the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0734. A rebound from this level allowed the pair to recover to the support zone of 1.0781–1.0797, but another rebound from this area opens the door for a renewed decline with a potential close below 1.0734. Conversely, a consolidation above the 1.0781–1.0797 zone would suggest the possibility of further euro growth toward the 200.0% retracement level at 1.0857.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation on the hourly chart has evolved. The last completed upward wave barely broke the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave broke the previous low. This indicates a gradual trend reversal toward a bearish direction. For several weeks, Donald Trump's tariffs exerted strong pressure on the dollar, but the market has now shown only a weak reaction to the latest round of tariffs.

Wednesday's news backdrop was both interesting and important. The U.S. durable goods orders report showed a 0.9% increase, beating the -1% forecast. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.7% (vs. 0.2% expected), and orders excluding defense climbed 0.8% (vs. -1.6% expected). These three key reports provided strong support for the bears. It was also announced yesterday that Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all automobiles imported into the U.S. Whereas previously such news would have triggered a sharp sell-off in the dollar, the reaction this time was minimal. This suggests the market may be growing desensitized to this factor. Of course, further tariffs are expected to be announced in early April, and their severity could again weigh on the dollar. But for now, this topic may be considered priced in.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after forming another bearish divergence and consolidating below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0818. Therefore, further decline toward the 50.0% level at 1.0696 remains possible. There's still room for downside, as the price is trading above the ascending trend channel. No fresh divergences are currently forming on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 305 new long positions and closed 46,030 short ones. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group turned bullish again—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 189,000, compared to 129,000 short positions.

For 20 weeks, large players had been offloading the euro, but for the past 6 weeks, they have been shedding shorts and building up longs. The divergence in monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed still favors the U.S. dollar due to widening interest rate differentials, but Trump's trade policy is a more influential factor for traders, potentially pressuring the Fed toward a more dovish stance and even triggering a U.S. recession.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

  • U.S. – Final Q4 GDP (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)
  • Eurozone – ECB President Christine Lagarde Speech (18:05 UTC)

The March 27 economic calendar includes three key events, two of which are quite significant. News flow may have a notable impact on market sentiment in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Selling opportunities were available after the pair closed below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone, targeting 1.0734 and 1.0622. The first target has been reached. Today, selling from a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone remains a valid strategy with the same targets. Buying can be considered only if the pair closes above this zone on the hourly chart, aiming for 1.0857—but bears are currently in control.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.0529 to 1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214 to 1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2

#SPX (contrato CFD sobre futuros del SP500). Esperamos que la subida continúe

El contrato CFD sobre futuros del S&P 500 se recupera vigorosamente tras una caída local del lunes por la oleada de noticias sobre el éxito de la empresa china DeepSeek

Pati Gani 11:06 2025-01-29 UTC+2

Nasdaq 100. Se esperan nuevos máximos históricos

La toma de posesión hoy de Donald Trump marcará el inicio del segundo mandato de su presidencia, acompañado de promesas de reforzar la posición de EE. UU. en la escena

Anna Zotova 10:00 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin – análisis técnico de la situación

El año pasado los principales logros y ventajas estuvieron del lado de los compradores. El año 2024 les trajo un nuevo máximo histórico (108362,36), superando el máximo anterior registrado

Evangelos Poulakis 06:55 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Análisis técnico para la semana del 16 al 21 de diciembre, del par de divisas GBP/USD.

La semana pasada, el par, moviéndose hacia abajo, rompió el nivel de retroceso del 14,6% – 1,2624 (línea de puntos azul), cerrando la vela semanal en 1,2618. Durante la próxima

Stefan Doll 09:17 2024-12-16 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.