empty
04.06.2024 12:41 AM
CFTC report: dollar remains under pressure

The net long USD position decreased by $3.8 billion to $14.8 billion over the reporting week, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline. The bearish bias remains intact, and the sell-off trend shows no signs of slowing down.

This image is no longer relevant

It is notable that the dollar sell-off is happening against the backdrop of nearly unchanged forecasts for the Federal Reserve's rate. As recently as mid-April, the Fed-funds futures were expecting the US central bank to cut its benchmark rate in September, with the second round expected around December or January of the following year. By the end of April, the futures market showed a steady growth in demand for USD.

Currently, expectations remain almost the same, with the first rate cut expected in September and the second in December or January. However, the dollar continues to be sold off. Apparently, a new factor has emerged, changing the forecasts.

This factor is based on growing fears that the US economy is at risk of a recession.

US economic growth for the first quarter was revised down from 1.6% rate to 1.3% due to soft consumer spending. Americans' household savings rate is declining.

Another indicator is the decline in the real estate market. Existing home sales in the US declined 1.9% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.14 million units in April 2024, which is almost equivalent to the worst period during the financial crisis of 2008-2011. Pending US home sales have dropped to a record low, about 15% lower than in 2008/09, and when adjusted for population growth, more than a quarter lower.

Moreover, the decline in consumer spending has had little impact on inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which accounts for the average amount of money consumers spend, rose by 0.3% in April, which is 2.5 times the historical average.

The yield on 5-year TIPS, which is calculated with an inflation adjustment, reached a low on December 6th and has since resumed growth. This is a fairly accurate indicator of inflation sentiments in the business environment, and it is not decreasing. Given that the calculation of the annual inflation rate in May will start considering last year's low base, it can be assumed that US inflation may surprise everyone with its growth in the coming months.

This image is no longer relevant

If the risk of a recession becomes apparent, the government will be forced to launch a new stimulus program. However, the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is already at its highest since 2012, excluding the COVID-19 years of 2020/21. The launch of a stimulus program will increase the budget gap to $3-4 trillion, and this huge amount of securities will have to be sold to someone. Obviously, the Fed is the main buyer, which implies a return to QE.

If events unfold this way, the dollar will become weaker. It is likely that global investors are fearing a similar scenario. Regardless of how accurate our assumptions are, we must pay attention to their actions, which signal increasing volumes of USD sales.

The US dollar remains under pressure, and there are currently no reasons to expect a bullish pivot.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. La inflación en Tokio se acelera, pero el yen sigue siendo vulnerable

El informe publicado hoy sobre el crecimiento de la inflación en la capital de Japón resultó estar en la "zona verde". La publicación permitió a los vendedores del par usd/jpy

Irina Manzenko 12:25 2025-03-28 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 28 de marzo. La libra no tuvo tiempo de caer, pero volvió a subir.

El par de divisas GBP/USD volvió a cotizarse al alza el jueves, aunque hace unos días comenzó una especie de corrección bajista. El mercado incluso reaccionó a un informe débil

Paolo Greco 07:24 2025-03-28 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 28 de marzo. A Donald Trump le gusta hacer sorpresas.

El par de divisas EUR/USD mantuvo una inclinación bajista durante el jueves, pero se negoció al alza durante el día. La volatilidad volvió a ser baja, lo que indica

Paolo Greco 07:24 2025-03-28 UTC+2

USD/JPY. El yen se devalua a la espera del informe sobre el crecimiento del TCPI

El par usd/jpy mantiene el potencial de un mayor crecimiento. El informe sobre el crecimiento del TCPI, que se publicará el viernes, o bien reforzará la tendencia alcista, o provocará

Irina Manzenko 12:13 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Donald Trump volvió a confundir a todos

Ayer, el presidente de EE.UU., Donald Trump, declaró que planea una serie de excepciones a su amplia propuesta de aranceles, lo que se convirtió en la última insinuación velada sobre

Jakub Novak 08:45 2025-03-26 UTC+2

El jefe del Banco de Inglaterra contra los aranceles y a favor del desarrollo de la IA

La intervención de ayer del gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra, Andrew Bailey, solo abordó parcialmente la economía del Reino Unido y sus perspectivas. Hablando durante una conferencia en la Universidad

Jakub Novak 08:17 2025-03-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Una semana importante para la libra

La libra espera acontecimientos importantes y significativos. El miércoles se publicará el informe clave sobre el crecimiento de la inflación en el Reino Unido, así como la intervención

Irina Manzenko 12:22 2025-03-24 UTC+2

El ataque a la estación de medición de gas Sudzha solo provocó un aumento temporal de los precios

Los precios del gas natural en Europa registraron un fuerte repunte debido a un ataque contra una estación de bombeo inactiva en la región de Kursk, Rusia. Según

Miroslaw Bawulski 10:29 2025-03-24 UTC+2

Los mercados atrapados en un círculo vicioso sin salida por ahora (posible caída del Bitcoin y del precio del oro)

Los mercados están en estado de confusión debido a la enorme cantidad de noticias negativas que se ciernen sobre ellos sin un final claro a la vista. En este contexto

Pati Gani 11:13 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 17 de marzo. El mercado se ha dormido, la economía no le interesa a nadie.

El par de divisas GBP/USD el viernes "murió" definitivamente. En la ilustración a continuación se puede ver claramente que la volatilidad fue bastante alta en los primeros tres días

Paolo Greco 07:03 2025-03-17 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.