empty
10.04.2025 12:59 AM
The Dollar – A Toxic Currency

Trouble often comes in pairs or groups. The decline of American exceptionalism is only one of the challenges facing EUR/USD bears. The main currency pair remains resilient and occasionally goes on the offensive, even amid declining European stock indices and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The root of the issue lies in the sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds. This market is no longer a safe haven for frightened investors. At this rate, the dollar may soon lose its status as the world's primary reserve currency.

An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth. China was not intimidated by the U.S. raising tariffs by another 50%, bringing the total to 104%. In response, Beijing retaliated by increasing its tariffs on U.S. imports to 84%. Moreover, the rising yield on U.S. Treasuries signals that China may begin offloading its holdings of U.S. debt — which could be even more damaging than the tariffs themselves.

Holdings of U.S. Bonds by China and Japan

This image is no longer relevant

China and Japan are the largest holders of U.S. government bonds, and non-residents collectively own over 30% of the market. After the White House announced its new tariffs on America's "Liberation Day," investors faced a natural question: will other countries still want to fund the U.S. economy by continuing to purchase or hold its debt?

Beijing and Tokyo had previously funneled their trade surpluses with the U.S. into Treasury purchases. However, once the current account balance is factored in, they may be forced to dump those holdings. Rising yields on 10-year notes could even trigger Federal Reserve intervention. Deutsche Bank is predicting the launch of a new quantitative easing (QE) program.

U.S. Bond Yield Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, while non-residents' initial response to Trump's sweeping tariffs was to dump U.S. stocks en masse, U.S. bonds had become the next target by early April. The capital outflow from North America is putting pressure on the U.S. dollar, whose throne has begun to wobble. Given current developments in the global economy, the "greenback" may risk losing its role as the world's primary reserve currency.

This image is no longer relevant

Bank of America believes losing trust and other factors will drive EUR/USD to rally toward 1.12, 1.50, and 1.20 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively. Conversely, ING sees 1.09 as the fair value for the pair, where it is likely to remain in the near term. Bears may find support in expectations of an ECB deposit rate cut in April, while the Fed is expected to keep its federal funds rate unchanged.

Technically, a 1-2-3 reversal pattern may be forming on the daily EUR/USD chart, but for that to materialize, bears would need to push prices below the fair value level of 1.092. That seems unlikely, so long positions opened from 1.097 should be held and potentially increased. Target levels are 1.130 and 1.160.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

O processo foi iniciado. A China está pronta para as negociações comerciais (há uma chance de nova queda nos preços do ouro e do EUR/USD)

A negociação no último dia da semana segue em tom positivo. A notícia de que a China está disposta a retomar as negociações comerciais estimulou a compra de ativos

Pati Gani 17:22 2025-05-02 UTC+2

O mercado está entrando em águas turbulentas

O mercado parece confiante de que as tarifas não serão implementadas ou que as empresas conseguirão repassá-las aos consumidores. A sequência de oito altas consecutivas do S&P 500 —

Marek Petkovich 17:04 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 2 de maio? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Apenas alguns eventos macroeconômicos estão programados para sexta-feira, mas alguns são bastante significativos. Naturalmente, o foco está no NonFarm Payrolls dos EUA e na taxa de desemprego, mas também

Paolo Greco 16:29 2025-05-02 UTC+2

O BCE não tem outra alternativa

A moeda europeia continua a perder terreno frente ao dólar americano, à medida que os investidores aumentam suas apostas nas próximas decisões de política monetária do Banco Central Europeu (BCE)

Jakub Novak 16:04 2025-05-02 UTC+2

A China finalmente respondeu

O euro, a libra esterlina e outros ativos de risco registraram ganhos após declarações do Ministério do Comércio da China indicando que o país está avaliando propostas dos Estados Unidos

Jakub Novak 15:56 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Dados do mercado de trabalho dos EUA podem ser uma grande decepção

O crescimento do emprego nos EUA provavelmente desacelerou em abril, embora a taxa de desemprego deva permanecer inalterada, apontando para uma demanda saudável, porém moderada, por mão de obra. Entretanto

Jakub Novak 14:32 2025-05-02 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Análise e previsão

O par EUR/USD atrai compradores nesta sexta-feira, interrompendo uma sequência de três quedas consecutivas e buscando consolidar um impulso intradiário acima do nível psicológico de 1,1300. O movimento reflete

Irina Yanina 14:16 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Visão geral do EUR/USD em 1 de maio de 2025

O par de moedas EUR/USD continuou a ser negociado dentro do mesmo canal lateral de 1,1321-1,1426 na quarta-feira, claramente visível no gráfico horário. Apesar de uma grande quantidade de dados

Paolo Greco 16:07 2025-05-01 UTC+2

Mercado responsabiliza Trump pela instabilidade econômica

Em abril, o mercado de ações dos EUA levou os investidores por sua montanha-russa mais intensa desde a pandemia. As tarifas do "Dia da Libertação Americana", anunciadas pela Casa Branca

Marek Petkovich 15:37 2025-05-01 UTC+2

Por que o ouro está caindo pelo terceiro dia consecutivo

ouro queda terceiro consecutivo, por de nas comerciais os e parceiros, que reduzido demanda ativos refúgio, diante indícios desaceleração principais globais. Esses sinais positivos diminuem o apelo do ouro como

Jakub Novak 14:58 2025-05-01 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.