Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

There were no tests of the key levels I identified earlier today. The reason was low market volatility due to the absence of important fundamental data.

During the U.S. session, the only scheduled event is a speech by FOMC member John Williams, with no other U.S. data expected. Only a hawkish stance from the Fed official could help the dollar regain strength against the euro. Clearly, the market is in desperate need of a catalyst to shift the current downtrend in the dollar, and Williams could provide that trigger. His speech might become a turning point today—however, that would require him to express strong confidence in the need to maintain current rate levels. Otherwise, if his rhetoric is dovish or ambiguous, the dollar may resume its decline, leading to further euro gains.

As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro upon a move to 1.0847 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0916. At 1.0916, I plan to exit the market and consider short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point retracement from the entry level. This euro rise is likely only if Fed officials sound dovish. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0815 level, while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. In this case, a rise toward 1.0847 and 1.0916 is expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0815 (red line on the chart), with a target at 1.0766, where I will exit shorts and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Dollar pressure may return if Williams takes a hawkish stance. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0847, while MACD is in overbought territory. This would cap the pair's upside and trigger a reversal. A decline toward 1.0815 and 1.0766 would then be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for long positions
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or suggested profit-taking area (further growth is unlikely above this level)
• Thin red line – entry price for short positions
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or suggested profit-taking area (further decline is unlikely below this level)
• MACD indicator – use overbought/oversold areas for market entry decisions

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stops can quickly wipe out your entire account, especially if you trade with large volumes and lack proper money management.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one provided above. Spontaneous decisions based on short-term market fluctuations are a losing strategy for intraday traders.