Trade Analysis and Advice for the Euro

The 1.0482 price test in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which limited the euro's downward potential—especially within the uptrend observed last week. This is why I did not sell the euro, and it turned out to be the right decision. I did not see any other valid market entry points.

News from the eurozone had little impact on the euro's price action, as the data was largely in line with economists' forecasts. Market focus remains on the Eurogroup meeting, where discussions will center on financial stability and economic recovery strategies, as well as the situation regarding the potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Traders are also looking for hints on the European Central Bank's next steps in terms of inflation control and monetary policy. Given the current geopolitical tensions and energy crisis, any uncertainty in Eurogroup decisions could trigger volatility in currency markets. Investors will closely monitor the tone of statements and concrete measures proposed to address these challenges.

Later today, there are no major economic releases from the U.S., so attention will shift to FOMC member speeches by Patrick T. Harker and Michelle Bowman. Investors will be looking for clues about future monetary policy, particularly regarding potential rate cuts and the Fed's economic outlook. Given the recent mixed economic data, the market seeks clarity on the Fed's next moves. Any divergence in views among Fed officials could increase market volatility.

For intraday trading strategy, I will focus mainly on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy EUR/USD at 1.0502 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0526. At 1.0526, I plan to exit and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point pullback. The bullish trend may continue today.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy EUR/USD if the price tests 1.0475 twice, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This setup will limit the pair's downward potential and likely trigger a bullish reversal. Expected targets: 1.0502 and 1.0526.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell EUR/USD at 1.0475 (red line on the chart) with a target of 1.0449. At 1.0449, I will exit and buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point bounce. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any time.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell EUR/USD if the price tests 1.0502 twice, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential and likely trigger a bearish reversal. Expected targets: 1.0475 and 1.0449.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying.
• Thick green line: Approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling.
• Thick red line: Approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

• Be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid unexpected volatility.
• If trading during high-impact news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, your account could be wiped out very quickly, especially when trading large volumes.
• Successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on short-term market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.