empty
30.01.2025 05:50 AM
Overview of the GBP/USD Pair on January 30: The British Pound Still Has Chances for Growth, but They Are Dubious

This image is no longer relevant

The GBP/USD currency pair experienced a slight decline on Wednesday. It's important to note that we are not considering any movements following the publication of the Federal Reserve meeting results, as these can significantly impact the current technical outlook and may also be misleading. After major events like a meeting of the world's largest central bank, market participants often react emotionally. As time passes, the market may revert to its original positions. However, the signals generated during such events can lead to a series of unprofitable positions. Even if the current trend is disrupted, it can be easily restored.

For now, we are analyzing the situation without factoring in the results of the Fed meeting and Powell's speech; we will discuss those tomorrow once the market stabilizes. The decline of the British currency has been ongoing for four months, which aligns with our expectations. Throughout 2024, we have cautioned that the pound sterling has been overvalued, having risen for two years without clear justification. Both fundamentals and macroeconomic indicators suggest a downward trajectory. The market has preemptively accounted for the entire cycle of the Fed's monetary policy easing while overlooking the Bank of England. As we approach the beginning of 2025, we see that the Fed has anticipated its monetary policy easing in advance, but the easing from the BoE, which has yet to commence, has largely gone unnoticed. If we set aside this factor, which remains a hypothesis yet has some basis, it appears that the Fed could lower its key interest rate twice this year, while the BoE may do so at least four times. The BoE, much like the European Central Bank, needs to address the challenge of weak economic growth. While it's possible to cope with inflation above normal levels, managing an economy that has stagnated for two years presents a far greater difficulty.

The Labor Party has come to power in the UK, and they urgently need to demonstrate to voters that they can govern more effectively than the Conservatives, who have been in charge for over 10 years. If the Labor Party, led by Keir Starmer, fails to deliver results, they risk following the same path as Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, and Theresa May in the next election. Naturally, the party aims to remain in power for an extended period, but this requires economic growth, rising living standards, and lower taxes. Currently, the Labor Party is starting its journey with plans for higher taxes and is facing a significant budget deficit, akin to the size of Nebraska, alongside an economy that has stagnated for two years. In the US, the Fed operates independently of the government, whereas, in the UK, it works more closely with the government. Therefore, it is expected that the BoE will lower interest rates, and it may do so more aggressively and swiftly than the Fed, which could lead to a further decline in the British currency.

As it stands, the pound sterling may experience a correction for a couple more weeks. A 400-pip increase on the daily timeframe appears relatively weak considering the previous significant decline. However, our long-term outlook remains unchanged: we anticipate further depreciation of the pound.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the GBP/USD currency pair over the last five trading days is 94 pips, considered "average" for this pair. Therefore, on Thursday, January 30, we expect the pair to move within a range defined by the levels 1.2340 and 1.2528. The higher linear regression channel remains downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone and formed a bearish divergence. A renewed downtrend is expected.

Key Support Levels:

  • S1 – 1.2390
  • S2 – 1.2329
  • S3 – 1.2268

Key Resistance Levels:

  • R1 – 1.2451
  • R2 – 1.2512
  • R3 – 1.2573

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to maintain a medium-term downtrend. Long positions remain off the table, as we believe that all bullish factors for the pound have already been priced in multiple times, and no new drivers are present. If you trade purely on technical analysis, buy positions could be considered with targets at 1.2512 and 1.2528, provided the price is above the moving average. Sell orders remain the preferred strategy, with targets at 1.2207 and 1.2146, but a confirmed break below the moving average is required.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Adakah Pasaran Saham AS Akan Terus Merosot dan Euro Meningkat? (Terdapat Peluang untuk Pertumbuhan Kontrak CFD pada Niaga Hadapan S&P 500 dan Pasangan EUR/USD)

Indeks utama pasaran saham AS menutup minggu lalu dalam zon negatif, mencerminkan peningkatan mengejut dalam sentimen pesimistik berikutan tanda-tanda kelembapan dalam ekonomi negara. Jualan besar-besaran dalam saham AS pada hari

Pati Gani 08:22 2025-02-24 UTC+2

Apakah yang Perlu Diberi Perhatian pada 24 Februari? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Asas

Analisis Laporan Makroekonomi: Sangat sedikit acara makroekonomi yang dijadualkan pada hari Isnin, dan tiada yang signifikan. Sepanjang dua minggu lepas, pasaran sebahagian besarnya mengabaikan data fundamental dan makroekonomi. Minggu lalu

Paolo Greco 06:02 2025-02-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Minggu Terakhir Februari – Pilihan Raya Jerman, Indeks PCE Teras, Anggaran Kedua KDNK A.S.

Minggu depan dipenuhi dengan peristiwa fundamental penting, yang meletakkan pasangan EUR/USD di persimpangan kritikal—ia mungkin bergerak ke julat angka ke-5 atau turun ke julat angka ke-3. Minggu lepas, EUR/USD mencatat

Irina Manzenko 05:02 2025-02-24 UTC+2

Dolar A.S.: Pratonton Mingguan

Selama berminggu-minggu, saya telah menekankan bahawa latar belakang berita AS akan menjadi penting untuk pasaran. Walau bagaimanapun, ini tidak lagi sepenuhnya begini. Malah di AS, kalendar ekonomi minggu depan agak

Chin Zhao 04:51 2025-02-24 UTC+2

Pound Sterling Britain: Pratonton Mingguan

Pound terus mengekalkan keyakinan dan sokongan pasaran. Tidak seperti euro, permintaan terhadap mata wang British meningkat dengan lebih stabil, dan gelombang pembetulan C dalam 2 telah membentuk struktur yang meyakinkan

Chin Zhao 04:49 2025-02-24 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasangan GBP/USD: Pratonton Mingguan – Yang Terbaik untuk Pound Sudah Berlalu

Pasangan mata wang GBP/USD sekali lagi mengalami volatiliti yang minima pada hari Jumaat, menunjukkan bahawa pergerakan ke atas mungkin hampir kepada kesimpulan logiknya. Dalam dua minggu yang lepas, terdapat sejumlah

Paolo Greco 02:13 2025-02-24 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasangan EUR/USD: Pratonton Mingguan – Satu Lagi Minggu Yang Membosankan

Pasangan mata wang EUR/USD mencatatkan volatiliti yang agak lemah minggu lalu, dan euro gagal meneruskan kenaikan dalam fasa pembetulan semasa. Hanya pound yang menunjukkan momentum kenaikan buat masa ini, disokong

Paolo Greco 02:13 2025-02-24 UTC+2

Pasaran. Keputusan Awal Presiden Trump. Apakah Seterusnya? (Potensi Peningkatan USD/CAD dan Penurunan EUR/USD)

Kesan awal kepresidenan D. Trump terhadap pasaran kewangan telah bercampur-campur. Mari kita lihat inti pati utama. Bermula dengan pasaran saham, pasaran saham Amerika Syarikat kekal hampir tinggi sejarah yang telah

Pati Gani 09:21 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Apa yang Perlu Diperhatikan pada 21 Februari? Penjelasan tentang Peristiwa Fundamental untuk Pedagang Baharu

Terdapat sejumlah besar peristiwa makroekonomi yang dijadualkan untuk hari Jumaat. Walaupun tiada satu pun daripada peristiwa ini yang sangat penting secara individu, kesan gabungannya boleh memberi pengaruh besar terhadap pergerakan

Paolo Greco 07:11 2025-02-21 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Mengapa Yen Sedang Meningkat?

Pasangan USD/JPY sedang mengalami penurunan mendadak, menembusi semua tahap sokongan pertengahan. Pada masa penulisan, tekanan menurun sedang menguji halangan harga yang kukuh pada 150.00, yang sejajar dengan garis bawah penunjuk

Irina Manzenko 03:03 2025-02-21 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.