Analisis Forex & Kajian: 28.01.2025 - WTI Oil Holds Its Ground,...

28.01.2025 09:22 AM

WTI Oil Holds Its Ground, Fearing a Collapse

The hydrocarbon markets are under pressure, trying to cope with the current volatility. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, which have already declined, are facing additional pressure. However, WTI is attempting to stabilize and avoid dropping to lower levels.

On Tuesday, January 28, WTI, the benchmark crude oil in the U.S., was trading near $73.00 per barrel. Futures for this light crude saw a considerable decline. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), WTI crude oil futures for March delivery were priced at $73.16 per barrel, with American crude briefly dipping by 0.01%. Despite this, support was observed near $73.08, while resistance was established at $76.00 per barrel.

In contrast, Brent crude futures for April delivery on ICE saw a slight increase of 0.01%, reaching $76.19 per barrel. The price difference between Brent and WTI contracts was recorded at $3.03 per barrel. Additionally, the USD Index futures, which track the dollar's performance against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.49%, reaching a value of $107.69, as noted by experts.

Analysts report that WTI crude prices are facing pressure due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans. Weak economic data from China is further complicating the situation.

Over the weekend, Trump unsettled the markets by threatening to impose tariffs on goods from Colombia and indicated he may take similar actions against China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. Additionally, he expressed his intention to pressure Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce oil prices. This uncertainty regarding the effects of Trump's proposed tariffs is heavily affecting WTI prices.

Adding to the complexity is the new administration's energy policy, which could significantly destabilize WTI prices in the near future. Financial analyst David Eng points out that WTI and Brent prices were already volatile and are now under added pressure as the market reacts to recent developments in U.S. trade policy. Eng noted, "While the tariffs that the Trump administration threatened against Colombia were short-lived, similar trade actions could trigger unrest in global markets."

The emergence of the Chinese startup DeepSeek has added fuel to the fire, as it has surpassed ChatGPT in both popularity and market capitalization. DeepSeek's disruptive entry into the market has shocked investors, leading to a decline in most stock prices. Additionally, this low-cost artificial intelligence (AI) model has raised concerns about the energy demand of data centers.

This week, market participants are closely watching the Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for Wednesday, January 29. The Fed is expected to announce its decision regarding interest rates. Experts believe that, given the current uncertainty, the U.S. central bank will likely keep the key interest rate unchanged.

Oil traders are particularly focused on the January FOMC meeting for insight on future monetary policy. A hawkish stance from the Fed could pressure economic growth and diminish expectations for WTI oil demand. Conversely, a dovish approach from the central bank could support oil prices in the near term.

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Larisa Kolesnikova,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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