Analisis Forex & Kajian: 27.08.2024 - The Euro Develops Bullish...

27.08.2024 01:12 PM

The Euro Develops Bullish Momentum. Overview of EUR/USD

The economic situation in the Eurozone remains stable, with incoming data not distorting the overall assessment of the key macroeconomic indicators that could potentially alter forecasts for the euro.

The PMI data for July generally aligned with expectations. The PMI for manufacturing fell slightly from 45.8 to 45.6 (expected 45.8), while the PMI for services rose from 51.9 to 53.3, with the growth attributed to a strong performance in France, which previously recorded weak economic performance. The increasing weakness in manufacturing could reflect a slowdown in activity in China and a subsequent decline in trade. However, there are no significant reasons to revise long-term models. The composite index increased from 50.2 to 51.2, indicating resilience in the economy, which gives the ECB room to conduct monetary policy without concern for the overall economic situation.

The ECB's report on harmonized wage rates, drawn from corporate data, stands out. In the second quarter, the average wage growth rate fell from 4.74% to 3.55%, which on one hand reduces the threat of a resurgence in inflation, but on the other hand, could prompt the ECB to further ease its policy.

Regarding inflation, the July report matched forecasts exactly. Core inflation, measured by the ECB's LIMI indicator, decreased slightly from 4.4% to 4.3%. Core inflation is the primary indicator for the ECB, as it remains high amid strong activity in the services sector and is therefore expected to remain elevated for some time. High core inflation will likely restrain the ECB from lowering rates, and the market anticipates that the ECB's rate trajectory will lag behind that of the Fed. Even if overall inflation falls to the 2% target, core inflation is expected to remain high, as is the view within both the ECB and the market, meaning there is no rush in the ECB's actions.

Currently, the market expects a 100 basis point cut by the Fed and a 50 basis point cut by the ECB by the end of the year—in September and December, respectively. The yield gap between the dollar and the euro is expected to change by approximately 50 basis points in favor of the euro. This is currently the main factor driving EUR/USD upward, assuming no unexpected macroeconomic events occur.

The net long position on the euro increased by $4.086 billion, reaching $7.79 billion during the reporting week, indicating bullish positioning. The calculated price is above the long-term average and is confidently rising.

The euro has successfully remained above the 1.1140 level, which we identified as the main target last week. The next target is 1.1226; a break above this level would signify an exit from the sideways range and open the door for further bullish movement. The 1.1140 level has now transformed into support, and while a pullback to this level is possible, it is less likely than a continuation of the upward trend.

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Kuvat Raharjo,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Peraturan lama pasaran kini diketepikan

Pertumbuhan Harga Emas Terhenti. Apakah Puncanya? (Terdapat Kemungkinan Pembetulan Harga Secara Tempatan pada #SPX dan Bitcoin)

Apakah yang Perlu Diberikan Perhatian pada 4 April? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasangan GBP/USD – 4 April: Masih Adakah Yang Peduli Tentang Senarai Gaji Bukan Ladang dan Kadar Pengangguran?

Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasangan EUR/USD – 4 April: Tarif Trump Menjatuhkan Dolar Sekali Lagi

Dolar Melemahkan Kekuatan Sendirinya

EUR/USD: Data Senarai Gaji Bukan Ladang dan Prestasi Dolar AS

Gelombang Ketegangan Melanda Pasaran

Mengapa Dolar Menurun Jika Isu Tarif Menjejaskan Semua Pihak? (Pembetulan Harga Dijangka bagi GBP/USD dan EUR/USD Selepas Kenaikan Mendadak)

Apakah yang Perlu Diberikan Perhatian pada 3 April? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Analisis terbaik