empty
06.05.2024 02:59 PM
Why stock markets grow but USD weakens in light of poor US NFPs. USD/JPY could sink again, gold could rise

The government data on the US labor market published on Friday interrupted the victorious pace of robust employment in the US economy since the end of last year. Strong NFPs previously became one of the reasons for the Federal Reserve's actual refusal to start cutting interest rates this year.

The April report for the number of new jobs released on Friday turned out to be way lower than predicted. Thus, the consensus assumed the increase in new jobs to 238,000, as well as maintaining the unemployment rate at the previous level of 3.8%. In practice, the nonfarm payrolls turned out to be not so optimistic. In April, the US economy added just 175,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. Besides, average hourly earnings slowed the pace of annual growth to 3.9% from 4.1%, and in monthly terms wages slipped to 0.2% from 0.3%.

How markets respond to such news

The US dollar weakened, which came as no surprise in such situations, when lower-than-expected employment figures come out. The greenback either rises sharply against major currencies or falls. On Friday, as expected, growth was limited, and its weakening in trading on Monday morning was not supported, at least not yet. The US dollar index is currently trading below 105.00 points.

But stock markets reacted to this news with notable optimism, which seems to be based on two pillars. The first is the assurance of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank does not plan to raise interest rates, and the second is the revival of hopes that the growth curve in the number of new jobs and everything that accompanied it has reached a certain point. As a result, we can expect a slowdown in the upward trend, which could lead to a decline in inflation. In turn, the Federal Reserve will again raise the issue of rate cuts in the second half of this year.

Is it a good idea to price in these scenarios?

I guess not yet. The weakening of the US dollar, the decline in Treasury yields, and growing demand for stocks may turn out to be temporary. Most likely, market is likely to revise its sentiment only when data on consumer inflation shows lower figures. Meanwhile, growth or decline in inflation will be based only on expectations and nothing more.

What market sentiment will prevail today

I believe the odds are that market participants will maintain Friday's trend. The empty economic calendar today will hardly contribute to this. Markets are going to shape sentiment based on internal stories rather than strong external factors.

Intraday outlook

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

USD/JPY

The currency pair remains under strong pressure in the wake of currency interventions from the Bank of Japan. If the instrument does not rise above 154.00, then the price may fall to 152.00 due to a temporary weakening of interest in the US dollar.

XAU/USD

Spot gold price may find support after breaking through the resistance level of $2,325.00 and rebound towards $2,353.25.

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Apa yang Perlu Diperhatikan pada 7 Mei? Huraian Peristiwa Fundamental untuk Pedagang Baharu

Peristiwa makroekonomi yang dijadualkan pada hari Rabu adalah sangat terhad, dan walau apapun, ia tidak mungkin memberi impak yang bermakna kepada mana-mana pasangan mata wang. Euro kekal dalam keadaan mendatar

Paolo Greco 06:55 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Gambaran Umum GBP/USD – 7 Mei: Trump Tidak Menerima Panggilan dari China, Terpaksa Mengalah

Pada hari Selasa, sementara euro kekal dalam aliran mendatar, pasangan mata wang GBP/USD mula bergerak menaik. Kenaikan ini bermula pada hari Isnin, tetapi semasa sesi A.S. hari itu, ISM Perkhidmatan

Paolo Greco 03:35 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 7 Mei: Mesyuarat Fed Menjadi Sumber Tekanan Baharu ke atas Dolar

Pasangan mata wang EUR/USD terus bergerak secara mendatar sepenuhnya pada hari Selasa. Keadaan mendatar dalam pasaran secara keseluruhan kini telah berlarutan hampir sebulan, dan selain itu, pasaran juga dilihat membentuk

Paolo Greco 03:35 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Perang Perdagangan sebagai Sebahagian daripada Konfrontasi Global

Ramai yang mungkin percaya bahawa perang perdagangan yang dimulakan oleh Donald Trump hanyalah alat untuk mengurangkan defisit bajet dan hutang negara. Namun, apabila diteliti dengan lebih dekat, jelas bahawa

Chin Zhao 01:06 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Mesyuarat FOMC Mei: Pratonton

Keputusan terkini mesyuarat dasar monetari Rizab Persekutuan akan diketahui pada hari Rabu. Di satu pihak, ia kelihatan seperti acara rutin dengan hasil yang telah pun ditentukan. Namun di pihak lain

Irina Manzenko 00:32 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Euro Mempertahankan Kedudukannya

Perang perdagangan lebih penting daripada politik. Cadangan Friedrich Merz untuk menyemak semula peraturan brek fiskal Jerman meletakkan asas untuk aliran menaik EUR/USD. Secara teorinya, kegagalannya untuk menjadi canselor sepatutnya mencetuskan

Marek Petkovich 00:32 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Dolar Australia Mencecah Paras Tertinggi Baharu

Dolar Australia mencapai paras tertinggi dalam tempoh lima bulan berbanding USD pada permulaan minggu baharu. NAB (National Australia Bank) telah menyemak semula beberapa ramalannya mengenai ekonomi Australia dan mata wang

Kuvat Raharjo 00:32 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Euro Menamatkan Pengukuhan dan Bersedia untuk Meningkat Semula

Inflasi di zon euro kekal pada 2.2% dari tahun ke tahun pada bulan April, sedikit di atas penurunan yang dijangkakan kepada 2.1%. Sementara itu, inflasi teras meningkat daripada 2.4% kepada

Kuvat Raharjo 19:08 2025-05-06 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analisis dan Ramalan

Yen Jepun kini menarik minat pembeli selepas penurunan baru-baru ini berikutan statusnya sebagai aset pelindung yang selamat di kala ketidaktentuan. Pemulihan yen yang dijangkakan disokong oleh faktor domestik dan luaran

Irina Yanina 18:47 2025-05-06 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pertukaran pasangan mata wang EUR/USD mengalami kesukaran untuk menetapkan arah jangka pendek yang jelas, berdagang dalam julat beberapa hari sementara pasaran menunggu berita tegas dari mesyuarat FOMC yang akan datang

Irina Yanina 11:05 2025-05-06 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.