Analisis Forex & Kajian: 04.04.2022 - US and European stock markets...

04.04.2022 01:58 PM

US and European stock markets slow down

Last week, US and European futures declined as traders were monitoring the situation in Ukraine. Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine may resume video talks today. Some EU governments are pushing for tougher sanctions on Russia.

Oil steadied at nearly $100 a barrel as traders anticipated demand amid a Covid outbreak in China and use of strategic reserves to boost supply and curb higher energy costs.

European gas prices rose last week and are trading at 1,286:

Cold weather in the EU also affects European companies' profitability, rising production, and transportation costs amid high gas and gasoline prices.

The Treasury yield curve is flashing more warnings that economic growth will slow as the Fed raises rates to tame inflation stoked in part by commodities. The two-year US yield has exceeded the 30-year for the first time since 2007, joining inversions in other parts of the curve.

The Fed minutes on Wednesday will shape views on the odds of a half percentage-point rate increase in May and provide key details on how the central bank will shrink its balance sheet.

"It would not be surprising to see yields rise further from here and it is very hard to know where they will land," Angela Ashton, founder and director of investment consulting firm Evergreen Consultants wrote in a note.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Saturday that a "sequence of steps" could get rates back to more normal levels. Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, said in an interview published on Sunday that rising inflation and a tight labor market strengthened the case for a half-point May hike.

A strong jobs report on Friday strengthened the case for the Fed to raise borrowing costs. The US added 431,000 jobs in March, while the unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% near its pre-pandemic low.

China's markets are closed for holidays. Moreover, around 25 million people in Shanghai remain locked down. State media also reported a new subtype of the omicron variant.

The Russian stock market recovered for the second week in a row amid unprecedented sanctions, gas sales to some "unfriendly" countries with payment in rubles and the peace talks.

Key events to watch this week:

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, Tuesday.
Fed Governor Lael Brainard speaks, Tuesday
Federal Reserve minutes, Wednesday
China Caixin composite and services PMI, Wednesday
EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks, Wednesday
St. Louis Fed's James Bullard, Atlanta Fed's Rafael Bostic, Chicago Fed's Charles Evans speak at separate events, Thursday
Reserve Bank of India rate decision, Friday

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