विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 23.01.2025

23.01.2025 12:47 AM

BTC/USD: SEC's Crypto 2.0 and Rising Risk Appetite

Bitcoin quickly rebounded from the unexpected setback caused by Donald Trump. Contrary to widespread expectations, the U.S. president did not mention cryptocurrencies in his speech, nor did he sign any executive orders related to the digital asset market. This unexpected turn of events disappointed BTC/USD traders, resulting in a decline in Bitcoin's price to $100,000.

However, buyers regained control the following day, spurred by a leadership change at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Republican Mark Wade replaced Gary Gensler as SEC chair, and Paul Atkins is set to succeed Wade in June of next year. Both Wade and Atkins are known as "crypto advocates," particularly Atkins, making this leadership reshuffle a positive development for the market. On January 21, net capital inflows into U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds amounted to $802 million.

Mark Wade wasted no time in taking action. On Tuesday, he announced the launch of a working group tasked with developing a regulatory framework for crypto assets. This group will create a "roadmap" for cryptocurrency market regulations.

While it is still early to discuss specifics, the key takeaway is that the SEC has made its first move toward revising its approach to cryptocurrencies and establishing a regulatory environment. According to Hester Peirce, the head of the working group, roundtable discussions will soon be held with representatives from the crypto industry, investors, legal experts, government bodies, and other stakeholders. Additionally, the group will coordinate efforts with both domestic and international partners.

Following the creation of the working group, officially named Crypto 2.0, the price of BTC/USD rose to $107,200, hitting the upper Bollinger Band on the daily timeframe but hesitated to move higher. This price level appears to act as a ceiling despite the historical high being above $109,000. BTC/USD tested the $107,000 level on Tuesday and mid-December but retreated each time. The only moment it surpassed $109,000 was due to rumors that Trump would create a government Bitcoin reserve and simplify access to banking services for crypto companies. When those rumors did not materialize, BTC/USD returned to the $102,000–$107,000 range, corresponding to the Tenkan-sen line and the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart.

Bitcoin is currently buoyed by a favorable market sentiment, which is characterized by a greater willingness to take risks. Interestingly, Donald Trump plays a pivotal role in this dynamic, as he has avoided taking immediate action regarding trade wars with major global economies.

On one hand, after his inauguration, Trump has intensified his rhetoric, issuing threats against China, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico. For instance, he highlighted that the U.S. trade deficit with the EU is $350 billion, attributed to Europe's reluctance to purchase American goods. In this context, Trump compared the EU to China, asserting that "they, too, will face tariffs."

On the other hand, and surprisingly to many in the market, Trump is not rushing to take action, leaving room for negotiations. So far, he has only ordered a review of trade practices, with a deadline set for April 1. This is the only concrete step he has taken in this regard. Furthermore, according to Bloomberg, Trump is also interested in initiating discussions with Beijing.

This suggests that Trump's administration is keeping open the possibility for potential agreements while carefully preparing the groundwork for future tariff measures.

Markets are currently focused on the immediate situation, overlooking the grim long-term prospects. This has put pressure on the safe-haven dollar and increased demand for riskier assets, such as Bitcoin.

Another important factor supporting Bitcoin is the establishment of the Crypto 2.0 working group within the SEC. This group aims to create regulations for the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that the support for Bitcoin will likely be long-term.

At this time, there is no indication that the upward trend of BTC/USD will reverse. Therefore, any pullbacks should be viewed as opportunities to open long positions, targeting $107,200, which corresponds to the upper Bollinger Band on the D1 timeframe.

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