empty
21.04.2025 07:15 PM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Gold continues to show strong demand, trading near its all-time high, just below the key psychological level of $3400. The hardline international trade policy pursued by U.S. President Donald Trump, along with growing fears of a U.S. recession and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, continues to weigh on investor sentiment. This, in turn, supports ongoing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

Trump's recent imposition of tariffs—up to 145% on some Chinese goods and up to 245% on others—alongside China's retaliatory tariffs of 125% on U.S. exports, has significantly increased global trade tensions. These developments raise the risk of a recession in the U.S., which further weakens the U.S. dollar, already trading at lows last seen in April 2022.

Trump's unpredictable tariff announcements are undermining confidence in the world's largest economy. Combined with expectations of more aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, this creates an even more favorable environment for the growth of gold prices. Nonetheless, gold bulls may pause on short-term charts due to increasingly overbought conditions.

Despite hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, U.S. dollar bulls have failed to capitalize. Markets continue to price in the possibility of a full percentage point cut in the Fed's benchmark rate by the end of the year, further fueling gold's appeal.

Although recent U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and a one-day ceasefire in Ukraine announced by Vladimir Putin offer a glimmer of hope for reduced geopolitical tensions, these developments have not significantly improved investor confidence. Instead, demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold remains robust.

From a technical perspective, sustained buying confirms a positive short-term outlook for the precious metal. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is deep in overbought territory—well above the 70 mark—potentially prompting bulls to pause. It would be prudent to wait for some short-term consolidation or a moderate pullback before initiating new positions in anticipation of the continuation of the uptrend.

If a corrective decline occurs, initial support is seen around the $3350 zone, followed by the Asian session low near $3329–3330. A drop below this area would accelerate the decline toward the round level of $3300, and then potentially to Friday's low near $3284. This level is key—its breach could open the door to deeper losses.

No major economic data releases are expected on Monday that could significantly impact the market. However, a speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee could influence the dollar's trajectory. Traders should also watch Wednesday's PMI releases, which could provide new insights into the health of the global economy.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

U.S. GDP and PCE Data Unlikely to Drastically Shift Market Conditions (Possible Resumption of #NDX and #SPX Growth)

Markets are already fatigued by the chaos unfolding in Donald Trump's mind and among his followers. Everything remains extremely unclear, so market participants are now fully focused on today's important

Pati Gani 09:48 2025-04-30 UTC+2

The Market Hears What It Wants to Hear

How far will greed carry the crowd? The late April rally in the S&P 500 somewhat sweetened the bitter pill for Donald Trump. His first 100 days in office have

Marek Petkovich 09:23 2025-04-30 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 30? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A considerable number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday, but we doubt they will have any meaningful impact on currency pair movements. The market continues to ignore most macroeconomic

Paolo Greco 06:28 2025-04-30 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 30: The Illusion of U.S. Democracy and Trump's Impeachment

The GBP/USD currency pair saw a slight downward correction after Monday's rise, which came out of nowhere. However, it's difficult to call this minor move a "dollar recovery." The U.S

Paolo Greco 03:29 2025-04-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 30: The Main Mystery of 2025 Revealed

The EUR/USD currency pair continued trading within a narrow range on Tuesday, showing relatively low volatility. In reality, 80 pips per day is not a bad volatility level

Paolo Greco 03:29 2025-04-30 UTC+2

NZD/USD: Bullish Prospects Amid Uncertainty

Although the past week was completely uninformative regarding fundamental indicators, it allowed adjustments to forecasts on economic growth, inflation, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy strategy based

Kuvat Raharjo 00:43 2025-04-30 UTC+2

USD/CAD: The Loonie and Politics

Early parliamentary elections were held in Canada, resulting in the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, forming the government. Carney will face the difficult task of negotiating with Donald Trump

Irina Manzenko 00:42 2025-04-30 UTC+2

The Dollar Steps on the Same Old Rake

Trust is hard to earn and easy to lose. While markets assess Donald Trump's first 100 days in office, believers in historical signs point to an event in late April

Marek Petkovich 00:42 2025-04-30 UTC+2

Further Tariff Concessions from Trump

According to rumors and statements from officials, U.S. President Donald Trump intends to soften automobile tariffs by supporting some changes sought by the industry. This will allow for the cancellation

Jakub Novak 18:48 2025-04-29 UTC+2

Trade Negotiations Between China and the U.S. Are Ongoing. Markets Await Results (There Is a Risk of Local Declines in EUR/USD and GBP/USD Pairs)

Markets have once again paused amid uncertainty over whether a trade agreement between the U.S. and China will be reached anytime soon. The cloud of uncertainty that Donald Trump

Pati Gani 10:04 2025-04-29 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.