Trade Analysis and Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of 151.81 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential—especially in such a bearish market, as seen during Asian trading. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Today's key event will be the speeches of FOMC members Patrick T. Harker and Michelle Bowman, as no other U.S. economic data is scheduled due to the Presidents' Day holiday. The market will closely watch their assessments of the current economic situation and their outlook for monetary policy.Particular attention will be given to any hints about potential changes in the pace of interest rate cuts. Investors hope to gain a clearer understanding of whether FOMC members are leaning hawkish or dovish and how this might impact the future trajectory of the U.S. dollar. Any unexpected statements could trigger significant market volatility.

For intraday trading strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy USD/JPY at 151.92 (green line on the chart) with a target of 152.40. At 152.40, I plan to exit long positions and enter short positions, expecting a 30-35 point pullback. USD/JPY may rise today only if positive U.S. news emerges.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 151.52 twice, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This setup will limit downward potential and trigger a bullish reversal. Expected targets: 151.92 and 152.40.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell USD/JPY after a breakdown of 151.52 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a rapid price decline. The main target for sellers will be 151.00, where I will exit short positions and enter long positions, expecting a 20-25 point rebound. Selling pressure may increase if FOMC members take a dovish stance.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying.
• Thick green line: Approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling.
• Thick red line: Approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

• Be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid unexpected volatility.
• If trading during high-impact news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, your account could be wiped out very quickly, especially when trading large volumes.
• Successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on short-term market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.