On Friday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0458, continuing its upward movement toward the next retracement level at 1.0533. This trend may continue into Monday. A rejection from 1.0533 would favor the U.S. dollar, pushing the pair back down toward 1.0458. Bulls remain in control, but their momentum lacks strong fundamental support.

On the hourly chart, the wave structure has become ambiguous. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. The latest upward wave surpassed the previous high. This suggests that the trend has shifted to bullish or that the market is experiencing a complex horizontal movement. The size variations in recent waves create uncertainty regarding the existence of a clear trend.

On Friday, the fundamental backdrop favored EUR/USD bulls. It was the only day last week where bulls had strong reasons to push the price higher. However, given that they had already been in control throughout the week, the sustainability of the bullish trend remains questionable.

The euro continued to rise after a better-than-expected Q4 GDP report. Although economic growth was weak, any growth at this stage is seen as a positive outcome for the Eurozone and the euro.

Additionally, U.S. retail sales data released later in the day supported the euro's rise. Retail sales fell by 0.9%, a much larger decline than expected. This weighed on the U.S. dollar, despite strong industrial production data, which the market largely ignored.

Looking ahead to the new week, it is unclear what could drive further bullish momentum.

On the 4-hour chart, the price action resembles a range-bound market (sideways movement). This suggests that a downward correction is highly likely this week.

The pair retraced to the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0436 and held above it. However, price action in 2025 has mostly been horizontal, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum.

This means that a decline from current levels (or slightly higher) could resume soon. No divergence signals have appeared on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Over the last reporting week, professional traders opened 3,040 new long positions and 8,851 new short positions. This means that the Non-commercial group remains predominantly bearish, suggesting further potential downside for EUR/USD.

• Total long positions: 165,000
• Total short positions: 230,000

For 21 consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing their euro holdings, reinforcing the long-term bearish trend.

Occasionally, bullish dominance appears, but this is more of an exception than a trend reversal. The primary factor driving dollar weakness—expectations of Fed rate cuts—has already been priced in. At this point, there are no strong reasons to continue selling the U.S. dollar.

Given this, the long-term trend remains bearish, and a further EUR/USD decline is expected.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. & Eurozone

February 17:

• No significant economic events scheduled.
• Market sentiment will likely be driven by technicals rather than fundamentals.

EUR/USD Forecast & Trading Recommendations

• Short Positions: Selling EUR/USD is advisable upon a rejection from the 1.0533–1.0520 zone on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0458 and 1.0435.
• Long Positions: Not recommended at this time, as the pair is likely trading in a range-bound market on the 4-hour chart, near the upper boundary of that range.

Fibonacci Levels:

• Hourly Chart: 1.0533 to 1.0213
• 4-Hour Chart: 1.0603 to 1.1214