empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
15.08.2024 12:42 AM
Overview of USD/JPY; The yen seeks stability
Open trading account Open demo account

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. decreased from 3.0% to 2.9% in June, which is below the forecast. However, the market reacted calmly, as this did not add extra pressure on the Federal Reserve. The Fed is primarily focused on the core index, not the overall one, which continues to decline but is not rapid enough to affect the Fed's steady forecasts.

This image is no longer relevant

Overall, the inflation index supports the market's view that the Fed will begin to lower rates, and based on this release, expecting a strengthening of the dollar seems unlikely.

The Japanese market experienced a significant shock in early August, primarily caused by the Bank of Japan's rate hike, which occurred earlier than expected. The effect was amplified by signs of a looming recession in the U.S. due to a weaker labor market report and comments from Fed representatives.

Few anticipated that the modest BOJ rate hike would trigger a large-scale exit from carry trades. The yen's strengthening was too severe, and Japan's economic outlook deteriorated. The prospects for further BOJ rate hikes have mostly stayed the same, and it is unlikely that a new driver capable of causing significant yen movements will emerge in the coming weeks. On Thursday morning, Japan will release its preliminary GDP estimate for Q2. Growth is expected, but whether it will offset the 2.9% GDP decline in Q1 remains uncertain. According to indirect data, consumer spending shrank in the first four months of the year, but this trend appears to have stopped. Net exports increased, and investments also rose. The market will analyze incoming data, and until this process is complete, significant movements in the yen are unlikely.

The net short JPY position decreased by 5 billion over the reporting week, falling to less than 1 billion, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline. In July, the total short position in the yen exceeded 30 billion, almost entirely liquidated in just four weeks. This indicates a large-scale exit from carry trades, which is likely to continue as the policies of the BOJ and Fed are opposing, and this trend is unlikely to be reversed in the near future. The calculated price is also steadily declining.

This image is no longer relevant

The USD/JPY pair has entered a sideways range while awaiting new inputs. Despite the fact that the main drivers that led to the sharp decline from the high of 161.96 have already played out, we assume that the current calm is temporary and the likelihood of resuming the decline is high. If the major exit from carry trades has already concluded, a correction to 149.00/50 is possible in the coming weeks, with the next resistance at 151.80, though an increase to this level seems highly unlikely. A resumption of the decline may begin with the emergence of a new driver, most likely either the announcement of the BOJ's plans to tighten monetary policy or clear signals in favor of a Fed rate cut. The local low established on August 5 at 141.71 is not reliable and will likely be tested in the medium term.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Forecast
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – April 4th (U.S. Session) The price test of 146.16 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential within a bearish
Jakub Novak
20:08 2025-04-04 +02:00
2170
Forecast
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – April 4th (U.S. Session) The price test of 1.3077 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's further downward potential. Following recent
Jakub Novak
20:03 2025-04-04 +02:00
1915
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is attracting some sellers for the second day in a row, despite the absence of any clear fundamental catalyst for a decline. Most likely, this is due to trading
Irina Yanina 11:50 2025-04-04 UTC+2

Old market rules broken

Someone is not telling the truth. Donald Trump insists that everything is going well and that the markets will flourish. But the S&P 500 just posted its worst 10-week start
Marek Petkovich 11:10 2025-04-04 UTC+2

The Growth of the Gold Price Has Stopped. What Is the Reason? (There Is a Possibility of a Local Corrective Pullback in #SPX and Bitcoin)

The global market crash triggered by the announcement of sweeping tariffs personally introduced by the U.S. President continues into Asian trading sessions. While the decline has slowed, there is still
Pati Gani 09:09 2025-04-04 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 4? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Only a few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but they may trigger a new storm. The market has not yet recovered from Wednesday evening's events when Trump imposed trade
Paolo Greco 07:29 2025-04-04 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – April 4: Does Anyone Still Care About Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment?

The GBP/USD currency pair posted a 300-pip upward move from Wednesday evening through Thursday. Given the current situation, this may not end the dollar's decline. To be honest, the fall
Paolo Greco 06:07 2025-04-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – 4: Trump's Tariffs Crash the Dollar Once Again

The EUR/USD currency pair gained nearly 300 pips between Wednesday and Thursday. We saw a repeat of the situation in early March when the U.S. dollar fell by 400 pips
Paolo Greco 06:06 2025-04-04 UTC+2

The Dollar Shot Itself in the Foot

Don't create a problem for someone else; you might get caught in it yourself. Donald Trump sought to leverage the United States' leading position in the global economy by announcing
Marek Petkovich 00:50 2025-04-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Nonfarm Payrolls and the Greenback

Can strong Nonfarm Payrolls help the dollar? This question is complicated, as the market is currently too shaken by Donald Trump's new tariffs. Traditional fundamental factors have been pushed into
Irina Manzenko 00:46 2025-04-04 UTC+2

USD/JPY – Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen is showing strong gains amid broad-based selling of the U.S. dollar, keeping the USD/JPY pair below the key psychological level of 147.00. Investor concerns over the potential
Irina Yanina 18:22 2025-04-03 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 02:00 UTC--4
The Growth of the Gold Price Has Stopped. What Is the Reason? (There Is a Possibility of a Local Corrective Pullback in #SPX and Bitcoin)
09:09 2025-04-04
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 11:00 2025-04-18 UTC--4
Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 4-7, 2025: sell below $3,120 or buy above $3,025 (21 SMA - rebound)
17:37 2025-04-04
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD and GBP/USD April 4 – Technical Analysis
09:38 2025-04-04
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 03:00 2025-04-09 UTC--4
Old market rules broken
11:10 2025-04-04
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-04-07 UTC--4
Stocks slide sharply as broad tariffs raise recession risk
11:14 2025-04-04
Stock Markets
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.