empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
18.06.2024 12:44 AM
The euro also led last week's decline against the US dollar
Open trading account Open demo account

The euro also led last week's decline against the US dollar

The euro fell due to several factors that collectively exert significant pressure on it. First, the European Central Bank was expected to start its rate-cutting cycle earlier than the Federal Reserve. Before last week, the first Fed rate cut was expected to take place in November. By then, the ECB might have already lowered its rate twice, which would naturally lead to a change in the yield spread in favor of the dollar.

This played a key role last week, but after the release of U.S. data indicating a decline in producer prices, the market is now anticipating two Fed rate cuts this year, the first of which is expected in September. Therefore, the factor of changing the yield spread in favor of the dollar has already been accounted for and will no longer impact the euro exchange rate.

The second reason is more serious and is political in nature. In France, Macron's party, Renaissance, suffered a crushing defeat to Le Pen's party, National Rally (RN), and Macron's approval rating is at its lowest since 2018. Macron announced early elections, with the first round set to take place on June 30. A victory for Le Pen's party could overturn Macron's reforms and lead to increased tension within the EU. Growing uncertainty reduced the demand for risk, European stocks are falling behind the market, and pressure on the euro has increased.

Another important factor is the slower-than-expected pace of economic recovery in the Eurozone. In April, industrial production decreased by 0.1% against a forecasted growth of 0.2%, and the annual index slowed from -1.2% to -3%. The Eurozone economy's weakness adds pressure on the ECB to begin adjusting monetary policy, increasing the chances of an earlier start to the rate-cutting cycle.

This image is no longer relevant

The second estimate of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index for May will be published on Tuesday. No changes are expected, with the forecast suggesting that the index will remain at the same level of 2.6%. A lower value will increase pressure on the euro, while a higher value will allow the euro to recover some of last week's losses.

The CFTC report showed a change in the demand for the euro after six weeks of improvement, with the net long position decreasing from $9.2 billion to $5.6 billion during the reporting week. While the bullish bias remains intact, the price has sharply fallen below the long-term average, highlighting the strength of the bearish momentum.

This image is no longer relevant

EUR/USD has fallen to the support level of 1.0690/0700 but failed to stay below it. The pair failed to reach 1.0650/60. However, given the strength of the bearish momentum, the price could still make an attempt to reach 1.0650/60, although there are no grounds for a deeper decline at the moment. We expect the situation to become clearer after the release of the Eurozone CPI report on Tuesday. For now, we advise you to sell on the rise with the goal of breaking below 1.0650. Take note that this is only a short-term scenario. Since the market has returned to the idea of two Fed rate cuts this year, it is unlikely for the euro to show a drastic decline.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Technical analysis
Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement EUR/GBP Cross Currency Pairs, Monday April 21, 2025 From what is seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/GBP cross currency pair appears to be moving above the EMA (100), which indicates that Buyers dominate the currency pair
Arief Makmur
04:19 2025-04-21 +02:00
1165
Technical analysis
Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement USD/JPY Main Currency Pairs, Monday April 21, 2025. With the appearance of Convergence between the price movement of the main currency pair USD/JPY with the Stochastic Oscillator indicator and the position of the EMA (100) which is above
Arief Makmur
04:19 2025-04-21 +02:00
1135
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

US Dollar: Weekly Preview

Is there light at the end of the tunnel? The US dollar will again try to answer that question in the new week. To briefly recap: over the past
Chin Zhao 01:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

British Pound: Weekly Preview

Several fairly interesting reports were released in the UK, but they almost did not impact market participants' actions. Demand for the British pound increased on all five days except
Chin Zhao 01:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Euro: Weekly Preview

There were very few changes regarding the euro last week. We observed horizontal movement for most of the week, which naturally did not affect the current wave markup. I want
Chin Zhao 01:00 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Trump targets Powell

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump stated that he could dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, casting doubt on the idea of central bank independence. He also expressed frustration that policymakers
Jakub Novak 14:42 2025-04-18 UTC+2

EU increases pressure on US

The entire world is now watching the ongoing negotiations between the US and its key trading partners. Despite President Trump's loud claims that the talks are going well, there
Jakub Novak 14:04 2025-04-18 UTC+2

The Market Taken Hostage

Will the White House cross the Rubicon by initiating the dismissal of Jerome Powell from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve? That would deal another blow to financial
Marek Petkovich 09:16 2025-04-18 UTC+2

Why Are Markets Frozen and What Are They Waiting For? (There is a possibility of continued Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidation in sideways ranges)

Today is Good Friday, a day Christians observe worldwide across all denominations. Market activity has noticeably decreased ahead of the Easter holiday, but this isn't the main reason for market
Pati Gani 09:00 2025-04-18 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 18? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic events scheduled for Friday—not in the US, the Eurozone, Germany, or the UK. Therefore, even if the market were paying any attention to the macroeconomic backdrop
Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-04-18 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 18. Powell's Speech: Nothing Positive for the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade relatively calmly on Thursday, showing only a minimal downward bias. We still can't classify the current movement as a "pullback" or "correction."
Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-04-18 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 18: The ECB Predictably Cut Rates, and the Market Predictably Ignored It

The EUR/USD currency pair spent most of the day moving sideways. When the European Central Bank meeting results were released, the market saw a small emotional reaction, but nothing fundamentally
Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-04-18 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 21:00 2025-04-22 UTC--4
Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement USD/JPY Main Currency Pairs, Monday April 21, 2025.
04:19 2025-04-21
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 21:00 2025-04-22 UTC--4
Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement EUR/GBP Cross Currency Pairs, Monday April 21, 2025
04:19 2025-04-21
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 10:00 UTC--4
US Dollar: Weekly Preview
01:01 2025-04-21
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--4
Euro: Weekly Preview
01:00 2025-04-21
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 09:00 UTC--4
British Pound: Weekly Preview
01:01 2025-04-21
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.