empty
21.02.2023 10:25 AM
Oil to get rid of Fear

If there is no hard landing of the U.S. economy in 2023, what are investors afraid of? Why are American stock indices falling? Why is oil going down, despite all the positive forecasts from Goldman Sachs regarding commodities? The problem is that the current strength of the U.S. economy allows the Fed to continue aggressively raising the federal funds rate. And that raises the fear of a longer and deeper recession. If not this year, then next. How long will Brent be afraid?

According to A/S Global Risk Management, sooner or later the market will take into account the Fed's tighter monetary balance in quotes and turn its attention to China, whose oil imports will reach a record level this year, and rising demand in India, the third largest consumer of oil in the world. This will likely happen in the second half of the year. In my opinion, a little earlier – in the second quarter.

Data showing the worst traffic jams in China's major cities since early 2022 and a return to pre-pandemic levels in the number of people using the subway suggest that the recovery of the Chinese economy is in full swing. Further evidence is the People's Bank China keeping key interest rates at current levels because activity is already high.

China's irrepressible demand for oil is evidenced by the growth of oil imports from Russia to 1.52 million bpd, just below the record set almost three years ago. Total purchases of oil and fuel oil reached 1.66 million bpd, which is a new historical peak. The previous one was recorded in April 2020, when Asia's largest economy was coming out of quarantine.

Dynamics of Chinese imports of Russian oil and fuel oil

This image is no longer relevant

Thanks to China, Russia managed to avoid severe export losses. The market is not worried about supply problems because the reduction in oil supply to Europe from the Russian Federation decreased in 2022 by only 300,000 bpd. The figure should fall to zero within a year of the embargo in early December. Moreover, the message about Moscow's intention to reduce production by 5%, which initially caused the growth of Brent quotes, actually turned out to be not so terrible. Despite this, producers intend to maintain exports at current levels.

This image is no longer relevant

The rapid recovery of Chinese economy may soon make itself felt. In the meantime, the market is fixated on the Federal Reserve's monetary restriction cycle and cautiously looking at the minutes of the February meeting. If its language turns out to be more hawkish, strengthening U.S. dollar will put additional pressure on oil.

Technically, there was a fourth rebound from the trend line on Brent's daily chart, after which an inside bar was formed. As a rule, it is won back by placing pending buy orders from $84.4 and sell orders from $82.9 per barrel. At the same time, a failed test does not mean abandoning the strategy. The optimal option is a fiasco with sales followed by a return to the bar's highs and the formation of longs.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

美元和股市崩盤持續 (澳元/美元或將繼續上升,而美元/日元可能進一步下跌)

當歐洲和部分亞洲地區仍在慶祝復活節,政治生活暫時停滯之際,美國由唐納·川普設立的「讓美國再次偉大」趨勢仍然在增長動力。如果還有人希望局勢會在總統決定延遲徵收全面關稅後穩定下來,過去的一週展現出這樣的希望還為時過早。

Pati Gani 09:04 2025-04-21 UTC+2

4月21日需要注意什麼?新手必看的基本事件逐項解讀

週一沒有安排任何宏觀經濟事件——無論是在美國、歐元區、德國還是英國。因此,即使市場在關注宏觀經濟環境,今天也沒有任何相關事件。

Paolo Greco 06:30 2025-04-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD 觀察 – 4月21日:慣性增長持續

星期五,英鎊/美元貨幣對持續上升。如果我們在高點之外看到這種價格走勢,那麼就不會有疑問。

Paolo Greco 04:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD 概況 – 4月21日:市場沉睡,唯有特朗普能喚醒

週五,歐元/美元貨幣對沒有出現任何顯著波動。這並不令人意外,因為週五是耶穌受難日,週日則是復活節。

Paolo Greco 04:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

美元:每週前瞻

隧道的盡頭是否有光明?美國美元在新的一周將再次嘗試回答這個問題。簡要回顧:過去兩個月,美國貨幣也沒有缺乏利好的消息。

Chin Zhao 01:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

英鎊:每週預測

英國最近發布了幾份相當有趣的報告,但幾乎未對市場參與者的行動造成影響。在週三的下半天之外,英鎊的需求在所有五天內均有所增加。

Chin Zhao 01:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

歐元:本週預覽

上週歐元的變化很少。我們觀察到大部分時間都處於橫向移動,這自然不會影響當前的波浪標記。

Chin Zhao 01:00 2025-04-21 UTC+2

特朗普針對鮑威爾

美國總統唐納德·特朗普昨天表示,他可以解雇聯邦準備理事會主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾,這引發了對中央銀行獨立性概念的質疑。他還對決策者近月來沒有下調利率感到不滿。

Jakub Novak 14:42 2025-04-18 UTC+2

歐盟對美國施加更大壓力

目前,全世界都在關注美國與其主要貿易夥伴之間的談判進展。儘管特朗普總統大聲宣稱談判進展順利,但仍然沒有明確的結果,這加強了投資者和交易員的悲觀情緒,並對美元造成壓力。

Jakub Novak 14:04 2025-04-18 UTC+2

市場被劫持

美國白宮是否會走出不歸路,解除傑羅姆·鮑威爾作為聯邦儲備委員會主席的職務?這將對金融市場帶來又一次打擊,但截至目前,標普500指數對於唐納德·特朗普對中央銀行行長的連番批評反應冷靜。特朗普宣稱他從未喜歡過鮑威爾,並指責他拒絕降息是在玩政治遊戲。

Marek Petkovich 09:16 2025-04-18 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.