Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 150.18 price level occurred when the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero mark, confirming it was a good entry point to sell the dollar. Consequently, the pair dropped to the target level of 149.65, resulting in a profit of over 40 pips.

There is a strong likelihood that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates, which supports the yen and puts additional pressure on the US dollar. Further interest rate hikes by the BOJ may reflect its confidence in the recovery of the domestic economy and its commitment to combating inflation.

At the same time, the strengthening of the yen creates additional pressure on the US dollar, especially in the context of mixed data on the pace of growth in the US economy and expectations of easing monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Investors may start moving their assets from the dollar into the yen, which could lead to a decline in the value of the US dollar.

Since there is no significant economic data today, market attention will likely focus on new political statements.

For intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point reaches around 149.75 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 150.21 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 150.21, I plan to exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 pip movement downward from that level. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price level 149.27 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. Growth toward the 149.75 and 150.21 levels can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the price breaks below the 149.27 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 148.70, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 pip movement upward from that level. Pressure on the pair may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 149.75 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal to the downside. A decline toward the 149.27 and 148.70 levels can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.