In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.2946 level and planned to make trading decisions from that point. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart to see what happened. The price did rise, but fell short of testing 1.2946 by a few points, so I remained without any trades.

To open long positions on GBP/USD:

During the U.S. session, the pound may get a chance to grow, as there is no major U.S. data aside from FOMC member John Williams's speech. If the market reacts bearishly to his comments, a false breakout around 1.2912 will provide a good entry point for long positions, aiming to recover toward 1.2946, where trading is currently centered.

A break and retest of this area from above would provide a new entry into long positions, targeting 1.2975, which would mark a return to a bullish market structure. The final upward target is the 1.3010 area, where I plan to take profit.

If GBP/USD declines and buyers fail to show up around 1.2912 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pound will likely increase, hurting its short-term bullish outlook. In that case, a false breakout near 1.2876 would offer a setup to buy the pound. I will also consider buying from the 1.2841 support level on a rebound, aiming for an intraday correction of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on GBP/USD:

The pound declined quite significantly, but there is still upward potential toward the end of the week, as the bullish trend is not broken. Bears are now focused on defending the 1.2946 resistance, which was not tested in the morning.

This level also aligns with the 30- and 50-period moving averages, which favor sellers. A false breakout there would serve as an entry point for short positions, targeting a drop toward 1.2912. A break below and retest of that range from below would trigger stop-losses and open the path to 1.2876, marking a deeper correction.

The final bearish target will be 1.2841, where I plan to take profit. A test of this level would stall further bullish momentum.

If demand for the pound holds in the second half of the day and bears fail to act at 1.2946, then I will delay selling until a test of 1.2975 resistance. I will only sell from that level on a failed breakout. If the pair continues climbing past that too, I will look for a rebound near 1.3010 to open short positions, targeting an intraday drop of 30–35 points.

COT (Commitment of Traders) Report – March 11:

The report showed an increase in both long and short positions, with long positions growing more significantly, making the bullish bias more evident—this is also reflected on the GBP/USD chart.

Given the positive economic trends in the UK and the Bank of England's gradual approach to rate cuts, the GBP/USD pair could continue rising. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting could weaken the dollar further, so GBP bulls have little to worry about for now.

However, corrections should not be overlooked, as they can occur along the path toward new local highs. The latest report showed that non-commercial long positions rose by 12,920 to 94,786, while short positions increased by only 2,301 to 65,593. As a result, the net long-short gap widened by 10,925.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is taking place below the 30- and 50-period MAs, signaling a market correction.Note: The author uses hourly (H1) chart data, which may differ from classic daily MAs on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands: In case of a decline, the lower band near 1.2950 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average: Smooths out price fluctuations to identify the trend.
  • 50-period (yellow), 30-period (green).
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence):
  • Fast EMA – 12, Slow EMA – 26, Signal Line SMA – 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Based on a 20-period MA, used to identify volatility and potential reversal zones.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions.
• Non-commercial long positions: Total long positions held by speculators.
• Non-commercial short positions: Total short positions held by speculators.
• Net non-commercial position: Difference between long and short positions.